On December 9–10, the Boris Nemtsov Academic Center at Charles University in Prague hosted the Ideas for Russia Labs Conference. The event welcomed over 40 participants.
The conference served as a platform to present the results of the Ideas for Russia Labs projects carried out by emerging experts in Russian politics, economy, and society. These projects were conducted under the mentorship of Russian academics in exile and other reputable scholars specializing in Russian studies.
The conference began with remarks from Tomáš Petříček, the former Czech Foreign Minister and a member of the board of trustees of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation. This was followed by opening statements from Karel Svoboda, an assistant professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Charles University, and Ivan Fomin, the head of the Ideas for Russia (IFR) initiative.
Each section of the conference was dedicated to discussing the research results of one of the nine projects from the IFR Labs program.
Abortions, sanctions, and defections
The IFR-CEDAR Élites Lab has demonstrated their early results of analyzing biographical data on 700 deputy ministers and other deputy heads of Russian federal executive bodies. The lab’s findings suggests that a key pillar of the Putin regime’s wartime resilience is a system of elite circulation among emerging elites, which was not fundamentally disrupted in the course of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Personally targeted sanctions do not significantly affect the career trajectories of the sanctioned officials and fail to induce elite defections.
The IFR Authoritarian Fragility Lab has presented its analysis of Russian regional demographic data. In particular, the analysis shows that the number of abortions in a region doesn’t influence the total fertility rate in it. The lab also hypothesizes that abortion restrictions in the Russian regions are not related to fertility or abortion rates but reflect efforts by regional authorities to manipulate statistics for reporting purposes.
In addition, the IFR Nationalisms Lab has presented their progress in collecting data about dissident Russian “national-patriots” and their potential to mobilize social groups and challenge the regime in a future window of political opportunity.
Effects of the war across Russia: Kursk, Caucasus, Buryatia
The IFR Meanings of War Lab has presented their findings on how residents of the Kursk region, who were forced to flee due to Ukrainian incursions in August 2024, express their grievances about the war. A key preliminary finding from the lab is that these individuals tend to view the breach of the state border and the invasion of Russian territory as local issues, rather than as national concerns.
The IFR Ethnic Resistance Lab has shared excerpts from interviews that highlight how the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has impacted ethnic minority activism in Russia. The lab has demonstrated the varying effects that the war has had on ethnic activists from the North Caucasus, the Volga region, Siberia, and the Russian Far East.
Russian families in displacement
The IFR Displacement Lab has presented the findings of a study focused on the challenges and strategies faced by Russians who left the country after 2022 with their children. The survey has revealed that the desire to secure better educational opportunities and safety for their children in the future often motivates the decision to leave their home country.
Still, many surveyed Russian migrants prefer not to “burn bridges” and choose to retain the capital they have accumulated in Russia. This capital may include real estate, relationships with relatives and friends, and legal documents that could facilitate future re-emigration. Additionally, parents tend to form “social bubbles” with other Russian-speaking migrants, while their children often build connections with peers from other immigrant families as well as blend in with local children.
Ideology and disinformation
The IFR Statism Lab has shared some early findings from its analysis of Russian teachers’ Telegram chats and Russian academic journals. The study indicates that the sustainability of the Putin regime’s attempts to ideologize higher education in Russia is questionable. The difficulties arise from various conceptual and pedagogical issues present in the guidelines for the “patriotic upbringing” modules, which confuse and frustrate the lower-level ideologues tasked with teaching those courses.
The IFR Disinformation Lab presented preliminary results of their study of Russian disinformation efforts in The Czech Republic and Germany. The lab has compiled a novel database of news articles from three state-affiliated outlets referencing Germany and the Czech Republic.
The study has revealed Russia’s reliance on framing strategies, particularly the omission of critical facts to skew perceptions rather than outright falsification of information. Notably, many posts mimicked neutral or balanced coverage, leveraging “expert opinions” from Western actors to project an illusion of trustworthiness and plurality.
IFR’s futures
Finally, the IFR Futures Lab has presented its early analysis of various paths Russia can take in the future. The team of the lab provided an in-depth exploration of turning points and policy implications of the scenarios that were earlier outlined in AMO’s “Russia 2030 Futures” report.
As part of the presentation, the preliminary conclusions on the likelihood of the scenarios’ outcomes were presented and later complemented by the feedback from the former foreign minister of Czechia Tomáš Petříček. He spoke about the broader implications of the future of Russia for the EU and its security.
Overall, the two-day event encouraged open dialogue and collaboration. Participants had the chance to showcase their work, share experiences, and refine their ideas with input from peers and experts.
The final results from the Ideas for Russia Labs are anticipated to be presented in 2025 in academic publications, policy papers, and mass media commentaries. However, the IFR Displacement Lab has already published its first report, and the first piece from the IFR Futures Lab has recently been featured in New Eastern Europe.